Queensland election 2020: Annastacia Palaszczuk faces off against Deb Frecklington as Labor seeks third term

There is about 40 minutes left before polling booths close around Queensland.

Counting begins at 6.01pm.

We don’t have photos of Deb Frecklington voting, because the LNP leader voted in Townsville.

Townsville has three seats and both Labor and the LNP have thrown a lot at claiming at least two of them.

When Annastacia Palaszczuk voted at her local state school, it wasn’t a universal warm welcome.

This LNP volunteer seemed to have a few things to say.

You can read more here.

Whitsunday – held by North Queensland First on a margin of 0.7%

Whitsunday was the most marginal LNP seat at the 2017 election. Its sitting MP, Jason Costigan, was suspended from the party in early 2019 and now leads his own party, North Queensland First.

This seat is one of several on the central and northern coast narrowly won by the LNP at the last election. Its conservative vote is likely to be split four ways between Costigan, the LNP, One Nation and Katter’s Australian party, which could allow Labor to win Whitsunday back and bolster its numbers.

South Brisbane – held by Labor on a margin of 3.6%.

The Greens are focusing their attention on three seats in inner Brisbane: Maiwar – which they won in 2017 – McConnel and South Brisbane. South Brisbane has been the highest profile of these races.

South Brisbane is held by Labor’s Jackie Trad, who served as deputy premier and treasurer in the Labor government until May.

In 2017 the LNP dropped to a distant third in this seat, with the Greens polling more than a third of the primary vote. The LNP gave its preferences to Trad, who held on by a 3.6% margin. This time around the LNP has reversed that decision and will recommend that voters preference the Greens candidate, Amy MacMahon, above Trad, which could end her career. A number of polls have put the Greens in the lead.

Mundingburra – held by Labor on a margin of 1.1%

Mundingburra is one of three Labor marginals covering the Townsville urban area. Losses in these seats would make it a lot harder for the party to stay in government.

The ALP is under threat from three parties in the Townsville area. One Nation and Katter’s Australian party have both polled over 10% in Mundingburra. If KAP were to overtake One Nation, it’s conceivable it could also overtake the LNP and challenge Labor for the seat.

Mundingburra was crucial in the downfall of a previous Labor government. Wayne Goss’s government won a third term in 1995 with the barest of majorities but lost this when the result was overturned in Mundingburra, where it had won by 16 votes. Labor lost the subsequent byelection and the National party returned to power for the next two years.

Currumbin – held by the LNP on a margin of 1.2%

Currumbin covers the southern end of the Gold Coast. It’s now held by the LNP’s Laura Gerber, who won a byelection this year after the retirement of the Liberal National MP Jann Stuckey, who held the seat with a 3.3% margin in 2017.

The LNP is now dominant on the Gold Coast, holding most seats in the region, but a YouGov poll this month showed a swing against it. This electorate in particular will have been deeply affected by the state government’s border restrictions, so the reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic will be a big issue.

The Labor government holds power by a slim majority, so making gains in LNP seats like Currumbin would help it to withstand potential losses in other areas.

Ben Smee, Graham Readfearn and Ben Raue have looked at some of the seats to watch in the coming polls.

Let’s take a look:

Aspley – held by Labor on a margin of 1.2%

Aspley is one of Brisbane’s outer marginal electorates and covers suburbs on the northern edge of the city, including Bridgeman Downs and Carseldine. Labor’s Bart Mellish won the seat in 2017 by just 752 votes after it had been held by the LNP for three terms.

Aspley is the southern tip of a block of Labor-held seats which have been crucial to rebuilding the party after its 2012 defeat.

Seriously – the storms in Queensland right now seem insane (and I say that as someone who has lived through plenty of Queensland storms and dismissed as a bit of rain, even as trees crashed through the roof.)

AAP writes:

Queensland has been hit with tennis ball-sized hailstones as a series of dangerous supercell thunderstorms race across the state’s south-east.

Severe thunderstorms that formed along the Great Dividing Range are pushing towards the coast from the NSW border to areas north of the Sunshine Coast.

Hail up to 7cm in diameter fell at Ipswich, Gatton and Adare, west of Brisbane, the Bureau of Meteorology said on Saturday.”

“These thunderstorms are a significant threat to property and life,” the bureau tweeted.”

Read more here:

Given there are very serious storm warnings for most of the south-east at the moment, I am not sure how many more people will be venturing out.

The hail pictures have been insane. Cricket ball-size (all hail must be described in sport ball terms. It’s the rules.)

Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Qld Votes.

Brisbane has had a few storm warnings today but the real turmoil seems to have been within the major parties – no one has a handle on how tonight will go.The Queensland parliament has 93 seats (no upper house, for those who don’t live #qldpol like I do) and so 47 is the magic number.

Labor currently 48 seats, the Liberal National party has 39, the Katter’s claimed three, One Nation has one, the Greens hold one seat and there is an independent.

It’s been a weird campaign, with each of Queensland’s very distinct regions feeling very, very differently.

The polls have gone in Labor’s favour, but point to a narrow victory. More than 1 million people cast their vote before today.I asked a couple of campaigners on both sides what the polling day was like and they all answered “very quiet”.So, no one has a handle on this.

But you have us to guide you through whatever Queensland throws at us tonight. I can tell you the feds are also watching – they want to know what role incumbency plays here, in a state where covid has been under control for months.

You have Amy Remeikis with you at the blog helm, with Queensland correspondent Ben Smee and Graham Readfearn on the ground and and Ben Raue doing his magic results interpretation.

Queensland doesn’t have daylight saving, so the polls won’t close for another two hours yet. Still, there is plenty for us to get through until we start seeing those vote counts roll in. Will we have a result tonight? Who knows! The only thing predictable about a Queensland election is its unpredictability – just one of the reasons the greatest nation on earth is the most interesting electoral area in the country.

Ready?